Year 2036: Lex

How can these impossible phenomena be explained? I sat entranced in my own dimly lit study that grew increasingly filled with papers and unanswered questions. When something defies logic in this world there is always a hidden reason. Every present unknown should always look silly from the perspective of a future human. Humans used to believe that the Earth was flat. Amusing right? Really wish this problem was amusing. It used to be, but now it's just turning to be slightly frustrating. Could it be that there isn’t the technology, equipment, or prior scientific knowledge needed to come up with an answer? I’ve always thought that there is nothing more scary and intriguing as an unanswered question or a solution that alludes you masterfully. What is the something that hides beneath the surface relating to this new strain of virus?

I kept on theorizing and writing through my thoughts from September to November. I filled whiteboards and consulted all the experts I could. I asked and searched the internet for a clue or a lead. I had fallen into circular thinking and endless work that leads to unproductive thoughts. When I came back to my senses, I chose to fall back to a different approach. Oftentimes, when I have a problem or question, I close in on how something works using only science. What if I were to assume this strain was because of a human or what a human has done? Humans change so much in the world and the things we do often are only able to be processed much later after their original act. With humans, we can try a new line of thinking instead where I reverse engineer the human thought process. I aim to identify the motive, the possibility of the situation, time frame of the act, and holes that could void the situation. I work at the National Institute of Viral Diseases in Austin, Texas, United States. As a researcher there, I have access to surveillance programs and data, so that we can prepare counter measures against the current viral diseases like this strain.

I readied my breath. I had the honor of talking to Reysa Aline, the sole director of the National Institute of Viral Diseases. I moved away from my podium to the center and beckoned to the presentation on the large screen that made my body tiny in comparison.

“In August, I was monitoring a new strain that I’ve called Strain Y. This strain has some minor, but concerning inconsistencies with how its unique genes relate to other herpesviruses in its order’s genome tree. Unique genes are mutations in the descendants compared to the parent viruses. Basically, the issue is this new strain shares the same common symptoms of herpesviruses like causing rashes and fevers in patients, but its unique genes are different from the other types of mutations seen in the rest of the genome tree. There is also a huge amount of new genetic code in this virus’s genome that surpasses any expectations of what could occur from mutations in the time we’ve been monitoring this strain. It does not match the common understanding of the molecular clock idea. 45% of this strain’s genome is novel information unseen in the parents. It is also most surprising that it is all being passed down successfully without error to its new generations. Most of this code is not beneficial or harmful to the virus’s survival. It is bizarre that a virus could apparently mutate so much and still be the same and unsuspecting. It feels barely possible, but we’ve seen the mutations quickly radiate in waves of incremental changes from the source into surrounding states. Since it is impossibly likely, I’ve thought about what else could have led to this. Although unlikely, following the assumption that a human out there in the world learned how to edit and change a virus to this degree and had no issues releasing it in an unauthorized manner, we now consider the pressing question. What are the possible reasons a human would feel inclined to edit a virus in this way?”

“The first thing that comes to mind is a bioweapon for war manufactured by a belligerent country looking to win a conflict and seize their bounty. Unfortunately, this doesn’t explain it well, since if that were the case it would be made and kept secret in a government lab. This is not the case, as the strain has been found worldwide. An intelligent country would never want to expose the virus to the entire world for many reasons. If the virus was detected and traced back to them, world sentiment would angrily rouse against them and a coalition of countries would come to dismantle the newly found nuisance immediately. The virus would surely not be enough of an advantage to counteract that. Also, a virus exposed to the whole world would harm that country’s own citizens and army. Overall, a virus used for war would be a precise weapon that would need to be deployed well and not in this risky and frankly useless way.”

“My second thought would be that a university or research group or corporation may have edited and developed this virus, but if they had the technology to do this, they would certainly reveal it for fame, global recognition, and money. The discovery of editing viruses in this way would be a tremendous scientific breakthrough which could revolutionize how medicine is studied, understood, and created and potentially much more in microbiology, ecology, and pathology. A new study that could be a great discovery in recent times. It may be considered that the group or university would not reveal this information to the public, because it would be dangerous information and could lead to world distress and instability. That is true, but whatever the case any company or university would have no reason for a modified virus to be made and released into the world at the present, so this is also another impossibly unlikely answer.”

“That leaves a private research group as a final consideration out of every realistic possibility I could contrive. Due to the nature of this revolutionary information it becomes necessary if this group were to exist that they would be small in size because the larger the group the higher chance it would be leaked to the outside. I think the largest this group could be would probably be around five people. After going through the first two scenarios and many others, this last one is the most sound. It explains the problem with no major conflicts, however there is no clear motive or agenda like the others. That's what makes this possibility a great threat! This is an important find that needs to be addressed now by the whole world!”

“Lex, what are you talking about?”

It seems what I said was more than enough to rouse Dr. Aline from her seating.

“We can not make announcements based on conjecture. You decided to forgo science and are instead blaming the event on humans? It's risky to say the least. What about continuing to search for another solution you missed first? You said it yourself that the last solution has no motive, so it is difficult to establish what to even say. We would broadcast and announce that there are some secretive people out there modifying viruses and releasing them out there in the world, but yes, we don’t know why. We can expect worldwide instability and commotion to occur because of this. We are an esteemed institution with public confidence. If you really believe this is a problem, take it slowly and come up with a stronger proposal. You may be highly accomplished already Lex, but this answer lacks sources, theory, and most importantly solutions. If you are wrong at any point you made earlier anyone could crumble your whole argument in a heartbeat. Thank you for your time, but only talk to me again once you figure out your inquiry.”

“That’s the thing Dr. Aline, if we announce it to the world then we can all work on a solution together. This strain is evolving so quickly and many of our treatments already don’t work. If this strain were to continue at this rate it may have the potential to be a threatening virus with a total immunity to our known treatments. With infinitely more minds, I am sure that we can create and find the-”