Probabilities

Three hours after the start of the first challenge

December 9th, 2050

Shinjuku Outer Palisades, Tennojima Mansion

“Why the hell are they trying to kill you?”

Rei scrambled on the floor to grab the boxes off the table. Ruby’s flames blocked the view from the window, so the chance of another attack was low, but whoever that was, they probably saw they had a gold medallion.

“It’s bad enough two of your guests are dead,” Rei shouted, “openly firing from the city will guarantee police involvement!”

And who the hell casually picks up a sniper rifle when the challenge started three hours ago?

This had to have been planned.

To Rei’s surprise, Ruby walked past her wall of flames, hair and dress billowing, and headed straight for the window. When the fire went out, Rei saw the woman stick her arm outside the room, then shot a massive ball of fire into the sky. The chromatic clouds were bright, but Ruby created a sun. Like a flashbang, it illuminated the forest around the mansion.

Considering the compound was at the edge of the elevated city, the shooter had to be perched in one of the taller trees. Either that or they could fly, which was said to be highest form of an exalt, so very low chance of that.

Ruby placed another wall of fire, then walked back. “Well, Yukari?”

The brown-haired girl was teary-eyed as she crouched on the floor, but she continued to work on her tablet computer. “Kiyotaka said he’s analyzing the mansion’s cameras. The light exposed everything.”

“Good,” Ruby acknowledged. “If Issei didn’t alert the police already, that would surely get their attention.”

Ruby pulled one of the couches towards the side of the room and sat down. “To answer your question, Rei, I don’t know. I expected this thing to escalate, but I didn’t expect it so damned soon.”

“It’s possible multiple forces are acting independently,” Rei said. He moved closer to Ruby and handed her the boxes. “But at least one of them came in prepared.”

“I agree,” Ruby replied, checking the medallions. “The challenge is set to proceed regardless of facilitators, which makes it easy for them to continue if that’s their goal.”

“And then there’s the two murders.”

“In my damned house no less.”

“I mean…”

“Ma’am, Kiyotaka found the shooter,” Yukari said. “Male build, tactical gear. The man wasn’t wearing a mask, and his face and build didn’t match any of the participants.”

“Your assumption is correct,” Ruby said with gritted teeth. “Have Kiyotaka ID our shooter’s face. Spear Team will pursue. Bow Team will continue guarding the mansion.”

Yukari’s hands were a blur.

“As for you, Rei.” Ruby showed him the contents of the boxes, then handed him both. “Go to Issei. Talk to the others. Find a way to get us another gold medallion.”

*

The Tennojima mansion was swarming with Ruby’s security team in blue suits. They all knew who Rei was, but currently he was posing as the guest ‘Reiji Shimomura’. They awkwardly avoided his gaze and stiffened whenever he walked by. Which probably looked suspicious from an outside perspective.

To match the situation, Rei tried to exude a get-out-of-way vibe from his gait and plastered an apathetic could-be-a-sociopath look on his face. Maybe Chief Ninomiya was right. Maybe he could pull off this con artist schtick.

Eventually, Rei arrived at the west wing of the mansion where the guest rooms were located. He found Masa talking with a couple of guests. The pretty American lady and Mister Sophisticated were the only ones remaining, looking rightfully rattled by the situation.

Rei scanned the hallways; one going north, one south. Five rooms each. With Keisuke and Ruby having personal rooms in the mansion, it would’ve been the right number for the guests. But only a few decided to stay for the night.

The apprentices were situated on the south hallway and one room had blue suits outside the door. That must be Carlos’ room.

There didn’t seem to be any obvious signs of fighting in the hallway itself, and if Carlos ran away, he would’ve come out here, pass the corridor to the foyer, then out the main door. The guests’ cars were parked outside so he would’ve just jumped in his. It didn’t look good for the Brazilian apprentice.

Masa grunted as soon as he noticed Rei. “Nothing to see here, sir. It’s best if you go back to your room.”

Harsh. But at least the guy knew how to act. Or did he? The bleach-blonde never quite forgave Rei for punching him in the face a week ago.

“Nothing to see?” Rei responded. “I saw the damned sky light up while I was out taking a leak! Pretty sure I heard shattering glass too. The hell’s going on?”

“Shattering glass?” Hidenori said in surprise. “Shimomura, was it? Where exactly did you, err, use the facilities?”

“Reiji’s fine,” he said in a bored tone. “Over at the east wing, I think. I originally wanted to ask for some midnight snack but gave up halfway through. Place sucks. What about you two?”

“Now that you mention it… I might’ve heard shattering glass,” Ana Lucia said. “I was talking with a friend over the phone, so I was distracted. I did hear a bunch of people running around though, so I came out of my room to check.”

“I also heard the commotion,” Hidenori echoed. “I think there were people running outside the mansion as well.”

Rei raised his eyebrows. “Well, mister guard? Are we under attack or something?”

“Why would you say that sir?” Masa said, his eyebrows twitching.

Oof. Masa was not the best actor after all.

“I’m pretty sure I saw you two chatting earlier,” Rei said to the two guests. “You sure you weren’t scheming something just now? Maybe a strategy meeting for the challenge?”

“We did no such thing,” Hidenori said as if offended. “I was in my room the whole time.”

It was a shot in the dark. But that probably meant this one already had a gold medallion.

Ana Lucia chuckled. “I wanted somebody to come strategize with me, actually, but alas. I feel like an outsider and didn’t know how to break the ice.”

“You know, your Japanese is very good,” Rei commented.

“Thank you. Ana Lucia, by the way.” The woman offered her hand. “But you can just call me Lucia.”

“Sounds easy enough.” Rei shook her hand. They were surprisingly delicate. Maybe she was the scientist she claimed to be. But also a potential silver. “Likewise, call me Reiji.”

Lucia beamed a smile. “Well, Reiji, would you be interested in strategizing with yours truly? Though I wouldn’t mind if Hidenori joined us as well.”

Hidenori cleared his throat awkwardly. “I suppose I don’t mind, but…” Another blue suit passed them by. “Something’s going on and I don’t like it.”

“Why don’t we find out, then?” Rei said, then he sidestepped Masa and forced his way into the hallway.

Masa cursed under his breath, then followed Rei. “Is this really the time?” he hissed in a low whisper. “The mansion might be under attack! And you can’t bring the guests along!”

That was exactly what Rei wanted to do.

Rei had no intention of solving the murder case like a detective in a mystery novel. Heck, work at the agency rarely had anything to do with murder at all. And if it did, it was only because the police roped them in for information. Besides, the chief handled that stuff. No, Rei’s goal was to locate golden medallions, win this damn challenge, and be free of Ruby Tennojima’s grip. And last he heard, there were three empty boxes in the murder room…

The door opened and Issei was startled to come face-to-face with Rei.

“Sorry, Issei,” Masa said. “Rei…ji insisted.”

Issei’s eyes flicked between Lucia and Hidenori who hovered just behind them.

“I suppose you have the right to see this,” Issei said. “But fair warning. Two people are dead and it ain’t pretty.” He gestured with his head and let the others come inside the room.

Almost immediately, Lucia and Hidenori made loud gasps. Rei remained silent.

Carlos’ room was like the other guest rooms: one double bed, carpeted floor, study desk, and a tall cabinet. The bed cover was still draped over the bed, suggesting it wasn’t used at all, but it was disheveled enough to assume people sat on it. Three boxes were also left on top of it, open and empty.

Other things were scattered on the floor: a phone, a bag, a magazine, and two books.

Signs of struggling, alright, Rei mused. But I would’ve thrown the boxes too if I could. Maybe the medallions were grabbed at the end of the fight?

“Oh, God…” Lucia whispered in disbelief as she followed Rei into the room.

Hidenori on the other hand remained close to the doorway looking weak at the knees. “W-Who would go this far for the challenge,” he said. “This is insane!”

Ringo Sakai was strewn across the floor on her back, close to the south wall. She was pierced by something through her left shoulder. Whatever it was it left her clothes singed and her skin burnt.

Akihiko Fukuyama didn’t fare any better. He was close to the back of the room with his back to the wall. He was pierced by something at the center of his chest. Same burnt skin and singed clothes. There was even a black mark on the wallpaper.

Rei raised his finger, then pointed it slightly down towards the direction where Ringo would be if she stood. There. The angle was a bit lower, but there was a slight burnt mark on the wall as well. Ringo must’ve father from the wall when it happened.

Rei turned, then pointed his finger at the wall where Akihiko originally stood. The man was pretty tall, and whoever did it, did it straight at his chest, leaving a more direct imprint on the wall.

“Oh, look!” Hidenori said. “The window is shattered!” And indeed, it was. “Is this the sound you heard, Reiji? I’m afraid I was too sleepy to hear it...”

No, I was in a completely different part of the mansion getting shot at, Rei thought. This might be what Lucia heard though.

“Maybe the assailant came from outside,” Masa said. “The window is large enough.”

“Are there cameras outside the mansion?” Lucia asked.

“Well, yes,” Masa answered. “There are no cameras in the guest area or the rooms for privacy, but there should be surveillance everywhere else.”

Rei’s eyes scanned the floor. It was clean. He walked over to the window and looked outside. The glass was scattered on the garden. “The attack definitely came from within the room,” he said. “Do any of you know if Carlos is exalted?”

The others looked at each other until Lucia spoke. “I remember Daiki-sensei saying that one of his apprentices was exalted, but that’s Akihiko, right?”

“This is clearly done with aether,” Masa said. “Maybe Carlos was hiding it all this time. Then, when the opportunity to get Daiki’s research came up, he had to use it against his colleagues. Maybe one of the is golden. Or maybe all of them!”

“About that,” Issei interjected. He pulled out his phone and showed surveillance footage of Carlos running out of entrance hall. His jacket was ripped and sagging on the right shoulder, complete with burn marks. “It seems our last apprentice was also attacked but managed to get away.”

“Did any of the guards see him?” Rei asked.

“They saw him leave out the main door,” Issei answered. “One of my men tried asking why he was leaving so late, but the man was desperately fleeing. He got on his truck and drove off.”

“I’m guessing no assailant was after him?”

“No. Not on any of our cameras.”

Rei looked out the window again and saw that the glass shards appeared unmoved or stepped on.

There were a ton of possibilities here, but the obvious one is that someone from the mansion did it, and did it using unconventional means. Likely aether-based. Lucia immediately came to mind, but for what it was worth, she looked genuinely surprised and probably wouldn’t be standing here. So either someone else was hiding their exalted abilities, have a unique weapon of some kind, or there was an exalt out there who could turn invisible.

Rei felt cold sweat drip down the back of his neck. He crossed his arms and turned to the side as if to hide his discomfort.

An invisible exalt? No way. It couldn’t be.

He recalled a pivotal moment of his childhood—his father suddenly disappearing in the blink of an eye. Months later, he was found dead by the river. The only explanation Rei came up with throughout the years was that an exalt’s powers did it. An ability to disappear and make others disappear.

But a similar culprit? Right here? Right now?

The odds should be nonexistent, but then the institute was involved.

Rei would rather leave this particular mystery to the police, but if it was somewhat connected to what he was looking for…

“It could just be Carlos himself,” Lucia said. “Maybe he was the attacker and accidentally hurt himself in the process.”

“Could be…” Rei muttered. “For now, let’s—”

Gunshots.

Rei looked up.

Multiple shots echoed outside the mansion, causing everybody in the room to suddenly duck and run for cover.

“Bow Team! Report!” Issei yelled over his transceiver. “What the hell is happening!?”

Time’s up. It seemed like whoever attacked Ruby wasn’t finished.

“Masa, secure our guests!” Issei shouted. “Sir, ma’am, please, follow our security team! This might not be over!”

Hidenori nodded his head repeatedly as he cowered in fear. “I-I… I have a gold medallion! W-What do I do? Am I being t-t-targeted?”

“We don’t know,” Masa said, “but it’s best if you keep the object hidden for now.”

Rei saw Hidenori squeeze his right jacket pocket as he and Lucia followed after Masa. They left the room and ran towards the east wing. Meanwhile, Rei stayed with Issei as they hovered around the guest area.

“I assume you already scoured Carlos’ room for the medallions?” Rei whispered.

Issei was distracted reading his phone for updates, but he nodded. “Carlos probably took them.”

“Did you figure out where he went?”

“Not yet, but we know he hasn’t left the Palisades. He headed west of the forest with his truck, but right now I got two teams fighting armed men to the east.”

“Men? Plural?”

Issei fixed his glasses and sighed. “The sniper didn’t come alone. We don’t know who they are yet, but we can only guess they’re here for the challenge.”

“And the police?”

“On their way.”

“Still? Aren’t the police on your payroll?”

“What? No, we don’t have them on our payroll! The hell you think we are?”

Rei shrugged. “I don’t know, kidnappers? Blackmailers? Is there a better word for that second one?”

“Look, that was—”

Rei held out a hand. “Yeah—whatever. If the police are on the way, then they’d likely put a stop to Tennojima’s game once they find out about it. Which they should. What really matters here are the Medallions and the prize.”

“What are you getting at, Rei?”

“We need to get to Carlos before anyone else does. The culprit, the armed men, the police.”

“But…” Issei looked at his phone.

Rei put a hand on the man’s shoulder. “Look, it sucks my power is useless in uncovering Daiki’s memories, but the only alternative I have is to get to his research for Ruby. My only purpose here is to win.”

Issei stared Rei for some time. “Fine,” he said. “But take Masa with you. He may not be exalted, but you can barely fight yourself.”

Rei was expecting Issei to send more than just Masa, but he’d take what he can get.

“Kiyotaka’s got his eyes outside the Palisades, so if Carlos ever makes it out of the forest, I’ll call either of you.” Issei typed a few things on his phone. “Just focus on finding the guy and stay out of danger. If the killer really isn’t Carlos, then the culprit is likely in pursuit.”

Rei gritted his teeth, then nodded.

An invisible killer. The ability to make someone disappear, even themselves. If there was such a thing, then Rei may have more reason to be in this game than winning it for Ruby and saving his friends.